A NY Perspective -- 9/11 -- 9/13

[NYReb]

Last week: 8-6 -5.2*
Season: 16-17 -38.1.*

Won more games than I lost last week, and went 3-1 on the 7*s, but lost both 10*s again to put me even further behind in units. I'm not worried, I've had slow starts before, and I'll righten my ship before it's all over. After all, if I wasn't 0-4 on my 10* games for -44* I'd be doing okay

Gotta focus on fewer games and get the big units right this time.

Thursday:
5* California +2
After losing a close one to Colo St last week, I think the Bears will be fired up here. Jeff Tedford is showing he is one of the premier coaches in college football. I wonder what he would do with a team with real talent. Utah, meanwhile, lost a heartbreaker to Texas A&M last week, and are bound to be feeling the disappointment of that. To make matters worse, they lost their starting QB Brett Elliot on that heroic try for a 2-point conversion. Senior Lance Rice has 20 starts in his resume, so it's not like there's not a backup available, but he hasn't played a snap this season. Utah will be fired up for this home game against a Pac-10 team, but I like the Bears getting points in this situation and think they will prove to be too much for the Utes. ("What's a Ute?")

Saturday:
5* Oregon -11.5
LSU beat Arizona on the road more than they beat LA-Monroe at home, and LA-Monroe is one of the worst teams in college football. Oregon has not been kind to the Wildcats, beating them 31-14 and 63-28 the last two years. I cannot believe that Arizona will play inspired football as long as Mackovic is there. He simply does not command respect. The Wildcats simply quit after the first quarter last week against LSU. Tuscon is a basketball town, and they tolerate football much like they do in Durham waiting for the "real" season to arrive. If you like trends, Arizona is 4-12-1 ATS in their first conference home game, while Oregon is 9-3 ATS in their last twelve against the Wildcats. Everything points to a convincing victory for the Ducks in this one.

Other games will be posted in this same thread as the week goes along.

 

[KMAN]

I agree 100% with Cal. Oregon should blow Arizona out but I don't feel as comfortable with that game.

GL,
KMAN

 

[NYReb]

Best of luck to you, KMAN!

 

[NYReb]

5* Georgia Tech +24.5
I was on the Noles big in their first two games and won each of them rather handily. Since they did win rather handily, I feel that we have some value in this week's line. As frumpy as Auburn has been so far this season, you have to have something going for you to beat them 17-3. Are the Noles capable of covering this spread against the Yellow Jackets? Heck yes! Are they motivated to? This is what I doubt. The Noles have won the last 4 games against Tech by 8, 11, 4, and 6 points. So what is it that suddenly has them favored by 24.5? That's what I mean by value. BTW, just for safety's sake, I think that half-point could be important. If your book only offers 24, you might considering buying the extra half-point. I just cannot see FSU winning this by more than 3 TDs and a field goal at the very most. Realistically, I expect a much closer game or I wouldn't be on it.

[This message was edited by NY Reb on September 10, 2003 at 12:15 PM.]

 

[silver7]

Avg. margin of victory L4 6.5!

 

[mws]

Actually, FSU is 11-0 SU vs. Tech since joining the ACC. However, the '99 and '00 games were close FSU wins by 6 and 5 points respectively.

 

[NYReb]

7* Vanderbilt +12.5
This line just dropped to 11.5 at Pinnacle, and chances are others might follow, so I wanted to get this up while this line is still available at some places. This is a strange game, and usually Vandy is a strange team to cap. They often play SEC teams tougher than anyone expects, and who's to know what to expect from Auburn this week? On paper, it is a mismatch. Vandy has one senior starter while Auburn is loaded with talented senior leadership. Still, paper hasn't lived up to itself lately where Auburn is concerned. I like a scrappy, youthful Vandy team in this spot over the disappointing Tigers. Do you know that in their first two games Auburn's vaunted rushing game has averaged exactly 1.1 yard per carry? Also worth mentioning is that the home team is 8-0-1 ATS in this series. Auburn wants a win in the worse way, but so do the Commodores who will fight them til the end. Auburn will probably come out with a win here, but I look for the Dores to keep it close.

 

[mobeer]

REB


BEST OF LUCK THIS WEEKEND$$

BEER GUY$$

 

[gopherbob]

a ute is an indian.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

NY Reb:

I won on the Fla. St. game and on the Ok. State game thanks in-part to your write-ups. Thanks much guy.

That AZ game looks like a big win for Oregon. Did you see Mackovic yell at his player last weekend??? Now, I have nothing against a coach yelling at a player for messing up but he was on him for over 2 mins. After what Mack has been through you would think he would have learned his lesson.

I hope Oregon wins big and Mack is gone at the end of the year (if not sooner).

Good luck!

 

[NYReb]

Mack is one of the worst college coaches imaginable. I was flabbergasted that they ever hired him. Hell, I was flabbergasted when Texas hired him years ago, and he never did anything for them, either.

Have a great week, BigGames!

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

As usual strong write-ups NY, thanks. The only game I do not feel good about is Vandy, just think the Tigers have a lot of anger pent up right now. Vandy is usually a good team to take it out on. I love the rest though, good luck.

 

[Kodiak7]

great stuff NY...

and Pat great point on the tigers... HMMMMM.. me thinks I may throw a dollar or two that way!

GOOD LUCK GUYS!

 

[jam2580]

Reb----great write up on Vandy. Think this is the best game of the WEEK! GL

 

[NYReb]

I agree it's easy to make a case either way in that Auburn/Vandy game. Maybe the Auburn case is even stronger. Thing is, that's the case I made for them when they played GaTech! Maybe the 3rd time is a charm. Guess I'll just go with my gut feeling on this game. Good luck to each of you!

 

[MSSTATEFAN]

Reb, wanted to know what you thought about a couple of games that I have done the numbers for.
Iowa -4, what? In state rivalry I know but Iowa is clearly the better team here. I am all over this one as of now.

West Virginia -7. looks like we have a really good WVU team on our hands this year. I just don't see Giululi(sp) for Cinci be able to keep the bearcats in this one.

Wake Forest -1.5. This Wake Forest team is good! Enough said!

Mississippi State -3. The Dawgs had an impressive second half v. Oregon. Tulane just beat a horrible team by a FG. I think the Dawgs cover this one.

BOISE STATE -21, THE SOREAD DESTROYERS

Just wanted to know what you thought of these games. Let me know something when you get a chance. Glad to be back with ya. GL

 

[NYReb]

Hey, buddy, glad you found me before they deleted the name of this site. This site is much more pleasant and much better monitored. More professional altogether.

I'll haven't looked at Iowa and West Virginia. Neither have caught my eye so far.

I agree totally about State. I'll have a write-up on them shortly.

Consensus here seems to be that Boise St is the play. I'd go with it.

I think Wake Forest is a trap. I wasn't going to get involved in this game, but the more I look at it, the more I think I might go with Purdue. Look at Sports Guru's thread with the newsletters, and check particularly the trends Mark Lawrence talks about. Just something to consider.

Glad you found your way here. Take care, and best of luck this week!

 

[NYReb]

In this post I'm gonna look at some games with a common thread. They are all teams against an opponent who won big last week. You probably already know who I'm talking about.

7* Connecticut +4.5
How can you go against these guys? Especially getting a BC team who tromped Penn St last week and has Miami next week. Last season they lost by 8 at BC. Don't you think they will do better at home this season? I think they are much improved this year, and they were warming up with Army last week while BC tussled with Penn St. I thought it would take UConn years before they became competitive in the Big East. Looks like they are already there. I like this classic sandwich matchup a lot.

10* Purdue +1.5
Very interesting game. I'd though I was going to avoid this one, but after looking real closely, I've decided to get involved. Here we have a team who was generally picked around 3rd in the Big-10 as an underdog against a team who was considered about 7th or 8th in the ACC. Not only that, it is a REVENGE game for Purdue, who were upset by the same Deacons at home last season. Wake thoroughly destroyed NCSt last week while Purdue was upset by Bowling Green. Don't you love it? You know the procedure -- things are not always as they seem. This might be a close game, or it might be a blow-out. Either way I see the Boilermakers winning staight-up. It's just the nature of the way things work.

5* Southern Miss -5
Here we have the same principle in this game. Memphis finally defeated another SEC team in Ole Miss last week and have been feeling good about themselves all week. It's funny, the team can know all about how it works -- letdown follows big win. The coaches drill it into their heads, they read it in the sports pages, the talk it up among themselves, they're fully aware of it. Yet they can't do a thing about it. Southern Miss is a big time rival, only the Golden Eagles are in the driver's seat. They've had extra practice time, enjoyed the Ole Miss game on TV, and have been priming themselves. And don't kid yourself, no matter how good you thought Memphis looked on TV against Ole Miss, Southern Miss is more talented team. I'd be surprised if the Eagles don't win this one by double digits.

More later.

[This message was edited by NY Reb on September 13, 2003 at 11:18 AM.]

 

[Kodiak7]

ny.. looks like you and I stand alone with the BOILERMAKERS!

GOOD LUCK!

 

[NYReb]

Good luck to you, Kodiak! Interesting the illusions pointspreads create. How much would Purdue be favored by if this were the season opener?